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Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Wacker Innsbruck
Wacker Innsbruck
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
5/25/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 10Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck36%
×Draw26%
SV Mattersburg37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Innsbruck
1.30
SV Mattersburg
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 31 away

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck
0.71
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck
1.52
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck or draw
63%
Wacker Innsbruck or SV Mattersburg
74%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
64%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck wins by 2+
16%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck 1+ goals
73%
Wacker Innsbruck 2+ goals
37%
Wacker Innsbruck 3+ goals
14%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
73%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
38%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck (draw refunded)
49%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck attack 0.71 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.30

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Wacker Innsbruck defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wacker Innsbruck scores more
36%
level
26%
SV Mattersburg scores more
37%

SV Mattersburg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SV Mattersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Mattersburg

Wacker Innsbruck beat SV Mattersburg 4-0 in Bundesliga on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.