Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1–1 Kirchbichl

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

FT

1 – 1

Kirchbichl

3/24/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 17Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)49%

×Draw22%

Kirchbichl30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)Expected goals in this matchKirchbichl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.52

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.99

Kirchbichl

1.52

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

1.80

creates per match

1.77

1.27

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.80

Kirchbichl

1.77

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.27

Kirchbichl

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) ↓

Kirchbichl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or draw

70%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or Kirchbichl

78%

Draw or Kirchbichl

51%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+

28%

Kirchbichl wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals

86%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals

59%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals

32%

Kirchbichl 1+ goals

78%

Kirchbichl 2+ goals

45%

Kirchbichl 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)

62%

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.80 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more

49%

level

22%

Kirchbichl scores more

30%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wacker Innsbruck (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff