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Wacker Burghausen vs SpVgg Unterhaching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SpVgg Unterhaching
SpVgg Unterhaching
A. Sorge 82'
N. Ortel 48'
C. Pfeiffer 45'
M. Stiefler 20'
11/7/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 17Wacker Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Wacker Burghausen35%
×Draw24%
SpVgg Unterhaching42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.48
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.64

SpVgg Unterhaching creates 11% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 55 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.77
SpVgg Unterhaching
2.02

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
SpVgg Unterhaching
1.18

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
SpVgg Unterhaching+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

SpVgg Unterhaching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
58%
Wacker Burghausen or SpVgg Unterhaching
76%
Draw or SpVgg Unterhaching
65%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
16%
SpVgg Unterhaching wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
77%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
43%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
19%
SpVgg Unterhaching 1+ goals
81%
SpVgg Unterhaching 2+ goals
49%
SpVgg Unterhaching 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
46%
SpVgg Unterhaching (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

SpVgg Unterhaching away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.18 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + SpVgg Unterhaching defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

SpVgg Unterhaching attack 2.02 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
35%
level
24%
SpVgg Unterhaching scores more
42%

SpVgg Unterhaching at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SpVgg Unterhaching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Stiefler
45'
C. Pfeiffer
48'
N. Ortel
82'
A. Sorge
83'
A. Andreichyk
Wacker
SpVgg
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner
V. Matvienko
Manager: V. Matvienko

Regionalliga - Bayern: Wacker Burghausen 1–3 SpVgg Unterhaching

SpVgg Unterhaching beat Wacker Burghausen 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 7, 2025.

Goals: M. Stiefler (20'), C. Pfeiffer (45'), N. Ortel (48'), A. Sorge (82').

The match was played at Wacker Arena in Burghausen.