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Wacker Burghausen vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
9/19/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Wacker Burghausen47%
×Draw24%
Greuther Fürth II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.72
Greuther Fürth II
1.29

Wacker Burghausen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.82
Greuther Fürth II
1.33

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Greuther Fürth II
1.62

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
71%
Wacker Burghausen or Greuther Fürth II
76%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
53%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
25%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
82%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
51%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
25%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
72%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
37%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
62%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
47%
level
24%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
29%

Wacker Burghausen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Greuther Fürth II

Wacker Burghausen beat Greuther Fürth II 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 19, 2023.

The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.