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Wacker Burghausen vs FC Schweinfurt 05 — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
FC Schweinfurt 05
FC Schweinfurt 05
2/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wacker Burghausen46%
×Draw23%
FC Schweinfurt 0531%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.85
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.50

Wacker Burghausen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.82
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.75

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
FC Schweinfurt 05
1.88

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
FC Schweinfurt 05+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

FC Schweinfurt 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
69%
Wacker Burghausen or FC Schweinfurt 05
77%
Draw or FC Schweinfurt 05
54%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
25%
FC Schweinfurt 05 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
84%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
55%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
28%
FC Schweinfurt 05 1+ goals
78%
FC Schweinfurt 05 2+ goals
44%
FC Schweinfurt 05 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
59%
FC Schweinfurt 05 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

FC Schweinfurt 05 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + FC Schweinfurt 05 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Schweinfurt 05 attack 1.75 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
46%
level
23%
FC Schweinfurt 05 scores more
31%

Wacker Burghausen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Wacker Burghausen 3–0 FC Schweinfurt 05

Wacker Burghausen beat FC Schweinfurt 05 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.