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Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bayern München II
Bayern München II
N. S. Agbaje 90'
4/1/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 26Wacker Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Wacker Burghausen39%
×Draw23%
Bayern München II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.64
Bayern München II
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 76 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.77
Bayern München II
1.99

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Bayern München II
1.51

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Bayern München II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Bayern München II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
62%
Wacker Burghausen or Bayern München II
77%
Draw or Bayern München II
61%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
19%
Bayern München II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
81%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
49%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
23%
Bayern München II 1+ goals
80%
Bayern München II 2+ goals
48%
Bayern München II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
51%
Bayern München II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Bayern München II away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.51 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + Bayern München II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bayern München II attack 1.99 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
39%
level
23%
Bayern München II scores more
38%

Wacker Burghausen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
N. S. Agbaje
Wacker
Bayern
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner
H. Seitz
Manager: H. Seitz

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Bayern München II

Wacker Burghausen beat Bayern München II 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 1, 2026.

Goals: N. S. Agbaje (90').

The match was played at Wacker Arena in Burghausen.