Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

WAC vs Sporting Gagnoa — Ligue 1 2019

WAC
WAC
FT
0 – 1
Sporting Gagnoa
Sporting Gagnoa
12/5/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

WAC27%
×Draw27%
Sporting Gagnoa45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAC
0.99
Sporting Gagnoa
1.36

Sporting Gagnoa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 59 away

creates per match

WAC
0.90
Sporting Gagnoa
0.92

allows per match

WAC
1.80
Sporting Gagnoa
1.07

finishing

WAC+0.00on par
Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAC ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

WAC or draw
55%
WAC or Sporting Gagnoa
73%
Draw or Sporting Gagnoa
73%

Winning margin

WAC wins by 2+
10%
Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

WAC 1+ goals
63%
WAC 2+ goals
26%
WAC 3+ goals
8%
Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals
39%
Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

WAC (draw refunded)
38%
Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAC attack 0.90 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + WAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

WAC scores more
27%
level
27%
Sporting Gagnoa scores more
45%

Sporting Gagnoa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting Gagnoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: WAC 0–1 Sporting Gagnoa

Sporting Gagnoa beat WAC 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 5, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.