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WAC vs SOL — Ligue 1 2019

WAC
WAC
FT
1 – 0
SOL
SOL
12/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

WAC28%
×Draw26%
SOL46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAC
1.06
SOL
1.44

SOL creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 90 away

creates per match

WAC
0.90
SOL
1.08

allows per match

WAC
1.80
SOL
1.22

finishing

WAC+0.00on par
SOL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAC ↓

SOL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

WAC or draw
54%
WAC or SOL
74%
Draw or SOL
72%

Winning margin

WAC wins by 2+
11%
SOL wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

WAC 1+ goals
65%
WAC 2+ goals
29%
WAC 3+ goals
9%
SOL 1+ goals
76%
SOL 2+ goals
42%
SOL 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

WAC (draw refunded)
38%
SOL (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

SOL away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAC attack 0.90 + SOL defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

SOL attack 1.08 + WAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

WAC scores more
28%
level
26%
SOL scores more
46%

SOL at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SOL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAC vs SOL

WAC beat SOL 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 30, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.