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WAC vs SOA — Ligue 1 2019

WAC
WAC
FT
2 – 2
SOA
SOA
8/17/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

WAC24%
×Draw26%
SOA50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAC
0.94
SOA
1.48

SOA creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 93 away

creates per match

WAC
0.90
SOA
1.15

allows per match

WAC
1.80
SOA
0.97

finishing

WAC+0.00on par
SOA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAC ↓

SOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

WAC or draw
50%
WAC or SOA
74%
Draw or SOA
76%

Winning margin

WAC wins by 2+
8%
SOA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

WAC 1+ goals
61%
WAC 2+ goals
24%
WAC 3+ goals
7%
SOA 1+ goals
77%
SOA 2+ goals
43%
SOA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

WAC (draw refunded)
33%
SOA (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

SOA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAC attack 0.90 + SOA defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

SOA attack 1.15 + WAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

WAC scores more
24%
level
26%
SOA scores more
50%

SOA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: WAC 2–2 SOA

WAC and SOA drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.