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Waalwijk vs Telstar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
Preview
12:00
Telstar
Telstar
7/29/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
45%
Waalwijk
model favours
45%26%29%

Telstar score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Waalwijk45%
×Draw26%
Telstar29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.46
Telstar
1.13

Waalwijk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.00
Telstar
0.92

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Telstar
1.92

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
71%
Waalwijk or Telstar
74%
Draw or Telstar
55%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
22%
Telstar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
77%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
43%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
18%
Telstar 1+ goals
68%
Telstar 2+ goals
31%
Telstar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
60%
Telstar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Telstar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.00 + Telstar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Telstar attack 0.92 + Waalwijk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Waalwijk scores more
45%
level
26%
Telstar scores more
29%

Waalwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Waalwijk are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Both teams score in 86% of Waalwijk’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 61% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Waalwijk
DDWDL
Telstar
WLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Waalwijk host Telstar

July 29, 2026: Waalwijk take on Telstar in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.