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Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
1/27/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 19Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Waalwijk39%
×Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.42
Sparta Rotterdam
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 119 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.33
Sparta Rotterdam
1.17

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.55
Sparta Rotterdam
1.51

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
64%
Waalwijk or Sparta Rotterdam
75%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
61%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
18%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
76%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
41%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
17%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
74%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
39%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
52%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.55 · 98 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.33 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.17 + Waalwijk defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Waalwijk scores more
39%
level
25%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
36%

Waalwijk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam

Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.