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Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
11/9/2018Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Waalwijk48%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.96
Jong PSV U21
1.50

Waalwijk creates 31% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 149 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
1.85
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.49
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
70%
Waalwijk or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
52%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
27%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
86%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
58%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
31%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
78%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
44%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
62%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.49 · 41 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.85 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Waalwijk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Waalwijk scores more
48%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
30%

Waalwijk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Jong PSV U21

Jong PSV U21 beat Waalwijk 5-3 in Eerste Divisie on November 9, 2018.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk).