Waalwijk 2–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jong Ajax

R. van der Venne 82' (pen)

D. Cleonise 19'

D. O'Niel 77'

9/29/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 9Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Waalwijk51%

×Draw22%

Jong Ajax26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.31

Waalwijk

1.91

Jong Ajax

1.31

Waalwijk creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.05

creates per match

1.05

1.57

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.05

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.57

Jong Ajax

1.77

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk+0.04on par

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

74%

Waalwijk or Jong Ajax

78%

Draw or Jong Ajax

49%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

29%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

85%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

57%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

30%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

73%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

38%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

66%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.05 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.91

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Waalwijk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Waalwijk scores more

51%

level

22%

Jong Ajax scores more

26%

Waalwijk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Altena

Waalwijk · D

8.5

Match Events

12'

N. Held← L. van Gelderen

19'

D. Cleonise↳ J. Altena

46'

T. van der Leij← M. Kramer

46'

M. van der Lans← J. Johnson

61'

E. Butera← S. de Falco

61'

L. Messori← Z. Ouazane

64'

R. Kuijpers← D. Cleonise

72'

T. Romers← T. Peters

77'

D. O'Niel↳ K. Wolff

78'

D. Kalokoh← K. Kasanwirjo

82'

R. van der VennePenalty

86'

J. Familia-Castillo← R. van Hedel

86'

H. Kuster← R. van der Venne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkJong

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots9

10Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots9

9On Target3

8Off Target3

3Blocked3

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

455Total Passes370

393Accurate Passes299

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls9

5Offsides0