Waa Banjul Football 1–1 TMT: Result & Stats

Waa Banjul Football

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

TMT

6/24/2024

GFA League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Waa Banjul Football34%

×Draw38%

TMT28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Waa Banjul FootballExpected goals in this matchTMT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.67

Waa Banjul Football

0.77

TMT

0.67

Waa Banjul Football creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

0.66

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Waa Banjul Football

0.66

TMT

0.67

allows per match

Waa Banjul Football

0.67

TMT

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

TMT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under82
Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waa Banjul Football ↓

TMT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–116%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

18%82%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Waa Banjul Football or draw

72%

Waa Banjul Football or TMT

62%

Draw or TMT

66%

Winning margin

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

11%

TMT wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

54%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

18%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

4%

TMT 1+ goals

49%

TMT 2+ goals

15%

TMT 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

55%

TMT (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waa Banjul Football at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.67 · 58 matches

TMT away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.66 + TMT defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

TMT attack 0.67 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Waa Banjul Football scores more

34%

level

38%

TMT scores more

28%

Waa Banjul Football at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Waa Banjul Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff