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Waa Banjul Football vs Milan — GFA League 2020

Waa Banjul Football
Waa Banjul Football
FT
1 – 0
Milan
Milan
7/1/2021GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Waa Banjul Football35%
×Draw36%
Milan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waa Banjul Football
0.83
Milan
0.72

Waa Banjul Football creates 15% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

Waa Banjul Football
0.66
Milan
0.77

allows per match

Waa Banjul Football
0.67
Milan
1.00

finishing

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par
Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waa Banjul Football ↓

Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Waa Banjul Football or draw
71%
Waa Banjul Football or Milan
64%
Draw or Milan
65%

Winning margin

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+
12%
Milan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals
56%
Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals
20%
Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals
5%
Milan 1+ goals
51%
Milan 2+ goals
16%
Milan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)
55%
Milan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waa Banjul Football at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.67 · 58 matches

Milan away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.66 + Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Milan attack 0.77 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Waa Banjul Football scores more
35%
level
36%
Milan scores more
29%

Waa Banjul Football at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Waa Banjul Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Waa Banjul Football 1–0 Milan

Waa Banjul Football beat Milan 1-0 in GFA League on July 1, 2021.