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Waa Banjul Football vs Falcons — GFA League 2020

Waa Banjul Football
Waa Banjul Football
FT
0 – 1
Falcons
Falcons
5/20/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Waa Banjul Football31%
×Draw34%
Falcons36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waa Banjul Football
0.82
Falcons
0.91

Falcons creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

Waa Banjul Football
0.66
Falcons
1.15

allows per match

Waa Banjul Football
0.67
Falcons
0.98

finishing

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par
Falcons+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waa Banjul Football ↓

Falcons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Waa Banjul Football or draw
64%
Waa Banjul Football or Falcons
66%
Draw or Falcons
69%

Winning margin

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+
10%
Falcons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals
56%
Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals
20%
Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals
5%
Falcons 1+ goals
60%
Falcons 2+ goals
23%
Falcons 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)
46%
Falcons (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waa Banjul Football at home — creates 0.66, concedes 0.67 · 58 matches

Falcons away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.98 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.66 + Falcons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

Falcons attack 1.15 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Waa Banjul Football scores more
31%
level
34%
Falcons scores more
36%

Falcons at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Falcons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waa Banjul Football vs Falcons

Falcons beat Waa Banjul Football 1-0 in GFA League on May 20, 2024.