WA Tlemcen 0–0 Olympique Medea: Result & Stats

WA Tlemcen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Medea

3/18/2023

League #187 · West - 22Stade Akit Lotfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

WA Tlemcen63%

×Draw24%

Olympique Medea13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WA TlemcenExpected goals in this matchOlympique Medea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.56

WA Tlemcen

1.60

Olympique Medea

0.56

WA Tlemcen creates 186% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 34 away

1.50

creates per match

0.79

0.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

WA Tlemcen

1.50

Olympique Medea

0.79

allows per match

WA Tlemcen

0.33

Olympique Medea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

WA Tlemcen+0.00on par

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WA Tlemcen ↓

Olympique Medea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

WA Tlemcen or draw

87%

WA Tlemcen or Olympique Medea

76%

Draw or Olympique Medea

37%

Winning margin

WA Tlemcen wins by 2+

35%

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

WA Tlemcen 1+ goals

80%

WA Tlemcen 2+ goals

47%

WA Tlemcen 3+ goals

22%

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

43%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

11%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)

83%

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WA Tlemcen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WA Tlemcen attack 1.50 + Olympique Medea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olympique Medea attack 0.79 + WA Tlemcen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

WA Tlemcen scores more

63%

level

24%

Olympique Medea scores more

13%

WA Tlemcen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "WA Tlemcen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff