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WA Tlemcen vs AS AIN Mlila — League #187 2026

WA Tlemcen
WA Tlemcen
FT
0 – 1
AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
8/25/2017League #187League #187 · Round 1Stade des Trois frères Zerga (Tlemcen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

WA Tlemcen54%
×Draw31%
AS AIN Mlila14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WA Tlemcen
1.18
AS AIN Mlila
0.45

WA Tlemcen creates 162% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

WA Tlemcen
1.50
AS AIN Mlila
0.57

allows per match

WA Tlemcen
0.33
AS AIN Mlila
0.86

finishing

WA Tlemcen+0.00on par
AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WA Tlemcen ↓

AS AIN Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

WA Tlemcen or draw
86%
WA Tlemcen or AS AIN Mlila
69%
Draw or AS AIN Mlila
46%

Winning margin

WA Tlemcen wins by 2+
25%
AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

WA Tlemcen 1+ goals
69%
WA Tlemcen 2+ goals
33%
WA Tlemcen 3+ goals
12%
AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
36%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
8%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

WA Tlemcen (draw refunded)
79%
AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WA Tlemcen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WA Tlemcen attack 1.50 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.57 + WA Tlemcen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

WA Tlemcen scores more
54%
level
31%
AS AIN Mlila scores more
14%

WA Tlemcen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "WA Tlemcen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: WA Tlemcen 0–1 AS AIN Mlila

AS AIN Mlila beat WA Tlemcen 1-0 in League #187 on August 25, 2017.

The match was played at Stade des Trois frères Zerga (Tlemcen).