Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wa Power vs Northern City — Division One League 2025

Wa Power
Wa Power
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern City
Northern City
11/16/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wa Power51%
×Draw27%
Northern City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wa Power
1.46
Northern City
0.85

Wa Power creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Wa Power
1.29
Northern City
1.07

allows per match

Wa Power
0.64
Northern City
1.64

finishing

Wa Power+0.00on par
Northern City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Power ↓

Northern City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wa Power or draw
78%
Wa Power or Northern City
73%
Draw or Northern City
49%

Winning margin

Wa Power wins by 2+
26%
Northern City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wa Power 1+ goals
77%
Wa Power 2+ goals
43%
Wa Power 3+ goals
18%
Northern City 1+ goals
57%
Northern City 2+ goals
21%
Northern City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wa Power (draw refunded)
70%
Northern City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Power at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Northern City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Power attack 1.29 + Northern City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Northern City attack 1.07 + Wa Power defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wa Power scores more
51%
level
27%
Northern City scores more
22%

Wa Power at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wa Power will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wa Power 1 – 0 Northern City

Wa Power beat Northern City 1-0 in Division One League on November 16, 2025.