Wa Boufarik 2–1 JSM Bejaia: Result & Stats

Wa Boufarik

FT

2 – 1

JSM Bejaia

Unknown 10'

6/5/2021

League #187 · Center - 20Stade Mohamed Reggaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wa Boufarik50%

×Draw28%

JSM Bejaia22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wa BoufarikExpected goals in this matchJSM Bejaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.80

Wa Boufarik

1.35

JSM Bejaia

0.80

Wa Boufarik creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

1.17

creates per match

0.77

0.83

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Wa Boufarik

1.17

JSM Bejaia

0.77

allows per match

Wa Boufarik

0.83

JSM Bejaia

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wa Boufarik+0.00on par

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wa Boufarik ↓

JSM Bejaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wa Boufarik or draw

78%

Wa Boufarik or JSM Bejaia

72%

Draw or JSM Bejaia

50%

Winning margin

Wa Boufarik wins by 2+

24%

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wa Boufarik 1+ goals

74%

Wa Boufarik 2+ goals

39%

Wa Boufarik 3+ goals

15%

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals

55%

JSM Bejaia 2+ goals

19%

JSM Bejaia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Wa Boufarik (draw refunded)

69%

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wa Boufarik at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wa Boufarik attack 1.17 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

JSM Bejaia attack 0.77 + Wa Boufarik defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wa Boufarik scores more

50%

level

28%

JSM Bejaia scores more

22%

Wa Boufarik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wa Boufarik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff