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Vysoké Mýto vs Trutnov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Trutnov
Trutnov
4/8/20234. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 21Stadion Vysoké Mýto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vysoké Mýto56%
×Draw21%
Trutnov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
2.08
Trutnov
1.26

Vysoké Mýto creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Trutnov
1.65

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Trutnov
2.11

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Trutnov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Trutnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
77%
Vysoké Mýto or Trutnov
79%
Draw or Trutnov
44%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
34%
Trutnov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
87%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
61%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
34%
Trutnov 1+ goals
72%
Trutnov 2+ goals
36%
Trutnov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
71%
Trutnov (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Trutnov away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Trutnov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.08

Trutnov attack 1.65 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
56%
level
21%
Trutnov scores more
23%

Vysoké Mýto at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Vysoké Mýto 2–2 Trutnov

Vysoké Mýto and Trutnov drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vysoké Mýto in Vysoké Mýto.