Vysoké Mýto 1–0 Sokol Libiš: Result & Stats

Vysoké Mýto

FT

1 – 0

Sokol Libiš

10/9/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 11Stadion Vysoké Mýto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vysoké Mýto70%

×Draw17%

Sokol Libiš13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysoké MýtoExpected goals in this matchSokol Libiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.00

Vysoké Mýto

2.55

Sokol Libiš

1.00

Vysoké Mýto creates 155% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 26 away

2.06

creates per match

1.12

0.87

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto

2.06

Sokol Libiš

1.12

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto

0.87

Sokol Libiš

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Sokol Libiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw

87%

Vysoké Mýto or Sokol Libiš

83%

Draw or Sokol Libiš

30%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+

48%

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals

92%

Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals

72%

Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals

46%

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals

63%

Sokol Libiš 2+ goals

26%

Sokol Libiš 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)

85%

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.55

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more

70%

level

17%

Sokol Libiš scores more

13%

Vysoké Mýto at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff