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Vysoké Mýto vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
PST
14:00
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 19Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vysoké Mýto78%
×Draw15%
Polaban Nymburk7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
2.49
Polaban Nymburk
0.60

Vysoké Mýto creates 315% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
93%
Vysoké Mýto or Polaban Nymburk
85%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
22%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
56%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
92%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
71%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
45%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
45%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
12%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
92%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.49

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
78%
level
15%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
7%

Vysoké Mýto at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysoké Mýto face Polaban Nymburk (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Vysoké Mýto hosting Polaban Nymburk. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vysoké Mýto host Polaban Nymburk at Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.