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Polaban Nymburk vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
FT
0 – 2
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
9/1/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 4Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk16%
×Draw17%
Vysoké Mýto67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.26
Vysoké Mýto
2.70

Vysoké Mýto creates 114% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 72 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
33%
Polaban Nymburk or Vysoké Mýto
83%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
84%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
6%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
72%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
36%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
13%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
93%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
75%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
19%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
16%
level
17%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
67%

Vysoké Mýto at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Polaban Nymburk 0–2 Vysoké Mýto

Vysoké Mýto beat Polaban Nymburk 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).