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Vysoké Mýto vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
PST
15:00
Ostrá
Ostrá
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 29Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vysoké Mýto51%
×Draw23%
Ostrá26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysoké Mýto
1.78
Ostrá
1.19

Vysoké Mýto creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vysoké Mýto
2.06
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Vysoké Mýto
0.87
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysoké Mýto ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vysoké Mýto or draw
74%
Vysoké Mýto or Ostrá
77%
Draw or Ostrá
49%

Winning margin

Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
28%
Ostrá wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
83%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
53%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
26%
Ostrá 1+ goals
70%
Ostrá 2+ goals
33%
Ostrá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
67%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysoké Mýto at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.87 · 70 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.06 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Vysoké Mýto defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vysoké Mýto scores more
51%
level
23%
Ostrá scores more
26%

Vysoké Mýto at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysoké Mýto vs Ostrá — Match Preview

Vysoké Mýto face Ostrá on June 7, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vysoké Mýto host Ostrá at Stadion Vysoké Mýto (Vysoké Mýto).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.