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Ostrá vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Ostrá
Ostrá
FT
5 – 2
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
11/9/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 14Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ostrá35%
×Draw23%
Vysoké Mýto41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostrá
1.54
Vysoké Mýto
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ostrá
1.75
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Ostrá
1.25
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Ostrá+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostrá ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ostrá or draw
59%
Ostrá or Vysoké Mýto
77%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
65%

Winning margin

Ostrá wins by 2+
17%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ostrá 1+ goals
79%
Ostrá 2+ goals
45%
Ostrá 3+ goals
20%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
81%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
50%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ostrá (draw refunded)
46%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostrá at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostrá attack 1.75 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Ostrá defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ostrá scores more
35%
level
23%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
41%

Vysoké Mýto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ostrá vs Vysoké Mýto

Ostrá beat Vysoké Mýto 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště v Hákově (Ostrá).