Vysočina Jihlava vs Sokol Živanice

Vysočina Jihlava

CANC

10:00

Sokol Živanice

2/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava59%

×Draw20%

Sokol Živanice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina JihlavaExpected goals in this matchSokol Živanice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.26

Vysočina Jihlava

2.21

Sokol Živanice

1.26

Vysočina Jihlava creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

3.42

creates per match

1.60

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava

3.42

Sokol Živanice

1.60

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava

0.92

Sokol Živanice

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

Sokol Živanice →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw

79%

Vysočina Jihlava or Sokol Živanice

80%

Draw or Sokol Živanice

41%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

36%

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

89%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

65%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

38%

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals

72%

Sokol Živanice 2+ goals

36%

Sokol Živanice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

73%

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 3.42, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 3.42 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sokol Živanice attack 1.60 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

59%

level

20%

Sokol Živanice scores more

21%

Vysočina Jihlava at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff