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Vysočina Jihlava vs Sigma Olomouc II — FNL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava
Vysočina Jihlava
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
3/14/2025FNLFNL · Round 19Stadion v Jiráskově ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava48%
×Draw24%
Sigma Olomouc II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava
1.66
Sigma Olomouc II
1.19

Vysočina Jihlava creates 39% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava
1.54
Sigma Olomouc II
1.16

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava
1.22
Sigma Olomouc II
1.78

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw
73%
Vysočina Jihlava or Sigma Olomouc II
76%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
52%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+
25%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals
81%
Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals
49%
Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals
23%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
70%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
33%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)
64%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.54 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sigma Olomouc II attack 1.16 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more
48%
level
24%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
27%

Vysočina Jihlava at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vysočina Jihlava 3–1 Sigma Olomouc II

Vysočina Jihlava beat Sigma Olomouc II 3-1 in FNL on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion v Jiráskově ulici in Jihlava.