Vysočina Jihlava 1–1 Artis: Result & Stats | FNL

Vysočina Jihlava

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Artis

11/10/2023

FNL · Round 16Stadion v Jiráskově ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava40%

×Draw26%

Artis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina JihlavaExpected goals in this matchArtis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Vysočina Jihlava

1.38

Artis

1.25

Vysočina Jihlava creates 10% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

1.54

creates per match

1.28

1.22

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.54

Artis

1.28

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava

1.22

Artis

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava ↓

Artis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava or draw

66%

Vysočina Jihlava or Artis

74%

Draw or Artis

60%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+

19%

Artis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals

75%

Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals

40%

Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals

16%

Artis 1+ goals

71%

Artis 2+ goals

36%

Artis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)

54%

Artis (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.54 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Artis attack 1.28 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vysočina Jihlava scores more

40%

level

26%

Artis scores more

34%

Vysočina Jihlava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff