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Vysočina Jihlava U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
T. Svanda 61'
J. Chytry 53'
F. Tilinger 23'
4/21/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 23Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava U1969%
×Draw16%
Příbram U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava U19
2.94
Příbram U19
1.35

Vysočina Jihlava U19 creates 118% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.63
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.85
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or draw
85%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 or Příbram U19
84%
Draw or Příbram U19
31%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
49%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
95%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
79%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
55%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
74%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
39%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
82%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.63 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.94

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
69%
level
16%
Příbram U19 scores more
15%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
F. Tilinger
53'
J. Chytry
61'
T. Svanda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Vysočina Jihlava U19 2–1 Příbram U19

Vysočina Jihlava U19 beat Příbram U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 21, 2023.

Goals: F. Tilinger (23'), J. Chytry (53'), T. Svanda (61').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.