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Vysočina Jihlava U19 vs České Budějovice U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
FT
4 – 1
České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
11/5/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 14Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava U1941%
×Draw22%
České Budějovice U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.89
České Budějovice U19
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 80 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.63
České Budějovice U19
1.77

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.85
České Budějovice U19
2.15

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par
České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava U19 or draw
62%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 or České Budějovice U19
78%
Draw or České Budějovice U19
59%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
22%
České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
85%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
56%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
29%
České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
84%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
54%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
52%
České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.63 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
41%
level
22%
České Budějovice U19 scores more
38%

Vysočina Jihlava U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava U19 4 – 1 České Budějovice U19

Vysočina Jihlava U19 beat České Budějovice U19 4-1 in 1. Liga U19 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách in Jihlava.