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České Budějovice U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava U19
Vysočina Jihlava U19
8/20/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 5SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

České Budějovice U1955%
×Draw20%
Vysočina Jihlava U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice U19
2.21
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.42

České Budějovice U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

creates per match

České Budějovice U19
2.06
Vysočina Jihlava U19
1.15

allows per match

České Budějovice U19
1.68
Vysočina Jihlava U19
2.35

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Vysočina Jihlava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw
76%
České Budějovice U19 or Vysočina Jihlava U19
80%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava U19
45%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
34%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
89%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
65%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
38%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 1+ goals
76%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 2+ goals
41%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Vysočina Jihlava U19 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Vysočina Jihlava U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Vysočina Jihlava U19 attack 1.15 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Vysočina Jihlava U19 scores more
24%

České Budějovice U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice U19 vs Vysočina Jihlava U19

České Budějovice U19 beat Vysočina Jihlava U19 3-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 20, 2024.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.