Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vysočina Jihlava II vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
PST
09:15
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
3/28/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 16Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II60%
×Draw21%
Ždírec nad Doubravou20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.13
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.13

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Ždírec nad Doubravou
0.95

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.77

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
80%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Ždírec nad Doubravou
79%
Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou
40%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
37%
Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
88%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
63%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
35%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
68%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
31%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
75%
Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
60%
level
21%
Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
20%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava II vs Ždírec nad Doubravou — Match Preview

Vysočina Jihlava II face Ždírec nad Doubravou on March 28, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vysočina Jihlava II host Ždírec nad Doubravou at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.