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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Zbrojovka Brno II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
PST
14:00
Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
4/26/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 20Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II35%
×Draw22%
Zbrojovka Brno II43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.71
Zbrojovka Brno II
1.90

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Zbrojovka Brno II
2.49

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Zbrojovka Brno II
0.92

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Zbrojovka Brno II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
57%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Zbrojovka Brno II
78%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno II
65%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
18%
Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
82%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
51%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
24%
Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
85%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
56%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
45%
Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Zbrojovka Brno II away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.49 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
35%
level
22%
Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
43%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava II vs Zbrojovka Brno II — Match Preview

Vysočina Jihlava II face Zbrojovka Brno II on April 26, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vysočina Jihlava II host Zbrojovka Brno II at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.