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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Vratimov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vratimov
Vratimov
4/2/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 22Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II38%
×Draw23%
Vratimov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.68
Vratimov
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Vratimov
0.71

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Vratimov
2.06

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
61%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Vratimov
77%
Draw or Vratimov
62%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
19%
Vratimov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
81%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
50%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
24%
Vratimov 1+ goals
82%
Vratimov 2+ goals
51%
Vratimov 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
49%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Vratimov away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Vratimov defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Vratimov attack 0.71 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
38%
level
23%
Vratimov scores more
39%

Vratimov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Vratimov

Vratimov beat Vysočina Jihlava II 2-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.