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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Velká Bíteš — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
9 – 0
Velká Bíteš
Velká Bíteš
10/20/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 12Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II51%
×Draw21%
Velká Bíteš27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.11
Velká Bíteš
1.50

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 82 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Velká Bíteš
1.70

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Velká Bíteš
1.72

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Velká Bíteš+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Velká Bíteš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
73%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Velká Bíteš
79%
Draw or Velká Bíteš
49%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
30%
Velká Bíteš wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
88%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
62%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
35%
Velká Bíteš 1+ goals
78%
Velká Bíteš 2+ goals
44%
Velká Bíteš 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
65%
Velká Bíteš (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Velká Bíteš away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Velká Bíteš defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.11

Velká Bíteš attack 1.70 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
51%
level
21%
Velká Bíteš scores more
27%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Velká Bíteš

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Velká Bíteš 9-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).