Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vysočina Jihlava II vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
4 – 2
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
9/21/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 8Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II65%
×Draw18%
Stará Říše16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.42
Stará Říše
1.13

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 55 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
84%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Stará Říše
82%
Draw or Stará Říše
35%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
43%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
91%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
69%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
43%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
68%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
31%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
80%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
65%
level
18%
Stará Říše scores more
16%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava II 4 – 2 Stará Říše

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Stará Říše 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).