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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
3 – 1
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
8/10/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 2Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II72%
×Draw15%
Slavoj Polná13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.85
Slavoj Polná
1.13

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 152% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
87%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Slavoj Polná
85%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
28%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
52%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
94%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
77%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
53%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
68%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
31%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
85%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
72%
level
15%
Slavoj Polná scores more
13%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysočina Jihlava II 3 – 1 Slavoj Polná

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Slavoj Polná 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).