Vysočina Jihlava II 1–2 Hanácká: Result & Stats

Vysočina Jihlava II

FT

1 – 2

Hanácká

10/3/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II19%

×Draw19%

Hanácká62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina Jihlava IIExpected goals in this matchHanácká

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.38

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.27

Hanácká

2.38

Hanácká creates 87% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

2.04

2.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.29

Hanácká

2.04

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.71

Hanácká

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Hanácká →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw

38%

Vysočina Jihlava II or Hanácká

81%

Draw or Hanácká

81%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

8%

Hanácká wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

72%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

36%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

14%

Hanácká 1+ goals

91%

Hanácká 2+ goals

68%

Hanácká 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

24%

Hanácká (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Hanácká away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.25 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Hanácká defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hanácká attack 2.04 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

19%

level

19%

Hanácká scores more

62%

Hanácká at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff