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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
3 – 3
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
L. Tall 81'
L. Fila 56'
R. Krivanek 35'
T. Gebauer 87'
D. Sobek 83'
D. Skroch 66'
9/11/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 7Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II42%
×Draw21%
Dolní Benešov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.01
Dolní Benešov
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.29
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.71
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
63%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Dolní Benešov
79%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
58%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
23%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
87%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
59%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
32%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
85%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
56%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
53%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
42%
level
21%
Dolní Benešov scores more
37%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
D. Skroch
35'
R. Krivanek
56'
L. Fila
62'
L. Tall← L. Tall
66'
D. Skroch
72'
A. Karcmar
72'
P. Ruby
75'
T. Lat← T. Lat
75'
V. Havlin← V. Havlin
78'
T. Gebauer← T. Gebauer
81'
L. Tall
81'
D. Sobek← D. Sobek
83'
D. Sobek
83'
P. Hrdlicka← P. Hrdlicka
83'
O. Kubik← O. Kubik
87'
T. Gebauer
90+1'
A. Savi← A. Savi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vysočina Jihlava II vs Dolní Benešov

Vysočina Jihlava II and Dolní Benešov drew 3-3 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 11, 2021.

Goals: R. Krivanek (35'), L. Fila (56'), D. Skroch (66'), L. Tall (81'), D. Sobek (83'), T. Gebauer (87').

The match was played at Stadion Na Stoupách in Jihlava.