Vyškov 3–0 Vysočina Jihlava II: Result & Stats

Vyškov

FT

3 – 0

Vysočina Jihlava II

D. Nieslanik 85'

M. Klesa 81'

P. Simr 54'

9/5/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 5Stadion Za parkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov72%

×Draw16%

Vysočina Jihlava II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VyškovExpected goals in this matchVysočina Jihlava II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.93

Vyškov

2.54

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.93

Vyškov creates 173% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

2.33

creates per match

0.70

1.17

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Vyškov

2.33

Vysočina Jihlava II

0.70

allows per match

Vyškov

1.17

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw

88%

Vyškov or Vysočina Jihlava II

84%

Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II

28%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+

50%

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals

92%

Vyškov 2+ goals

72%

Vyškov 3+ goals

46%

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

61%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

24%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)

86%

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.54

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vyškov scores more

72%

level

16%

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

12%

Vyškov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

T. Sova← T. Sova

54'

P. Simr

81'

M. Klesa

85'

D. Nieslanik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff