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Vyškov vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
3 – 1
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
M. Klesa 85'
O. Pernatskyi 54'
P. Simr 45'
M. Schlehr 44'
10/3/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion Za parkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov57%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Otrokovice22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
2.17
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.28

Vyškov creates 70% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vyškov
2.33
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.39

allows per match

Vyškov
1.17
Viktoria Otrokovice
2.00

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
78%
Vyškov or Viktoria Otrokovice
79%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
43%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
35%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
89%
Vyškov 2+ goals
64%
Vyškov 3+ goals
36%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
72%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
37%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
72%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.00 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.39 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vyškov scores more
57%
level
21%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
22%

Vyškov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
M. Schlehr
45'
P. Simr
46'
M. Fiala← J. Konarik
52'
J. Pancochar
54'
O. Pernatskyi
66'
J. Pancochar← M. Minar
79'
P. Simr← D. Nieslanik
85'
M. Klesa
86'
D. Jambor← J. Seyi
90'
O. Vintr← M. Muranyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vyškov 3–1 Viktoria Otrokovice

Vyškov beat Viktoria Otrokovice 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 3, 2020.

Goals: M. Schlehr (44'), P. Simr (45'), O. Pernatskyi (54'), M. Klesa (85').

The match was played at Stadion Za parkem in Vyškov.