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Vyškov vs Uherský Brod — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
3 – 2
Uherský Brod
Uherský Brod
11/9/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Stadion Za parkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov65%
×Draw19%
Uherský Brod16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
2.30
Uherský Brod
1.05

Vyškov creates 119% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 61 away

creates per match

Vyškov
2.33
Uherský Brod
0.93

allows per match

Vyškov
1.17
Uherský Brod
2.28

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Uherský Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
84%
Vyškov or Uherský Brod
81%
Draw or Uherský Brod
35%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
42%
Uherský Brod wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
90%
Vyškov 2+ goals
67%
Vyškov 3+ goals
40%
Uherský Brod 1+ goals
65%
Uherský Brod 2+ goals
28%
Uherský Brod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
80%
Uherský Brod (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Uherský Brod away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Uherský Brod defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.30

Uherský Brod attack 0.93 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vyškov scores more
65%
level
19%
Uherský Brod scores more
16%

Vyškov at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vyškov 3–2 Uherský Brod

Vyškov beat Uherský Brod 3-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Za parkem in Vyškov.