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Vyškov vs Táborsko — FNL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Táborsko
Táborsko
3/30/2024FNLFNL · Round 20Sportovní areál Drnovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vyškov46%
×Draw26%
Táborsko28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.47
Táborsko
1.09

Vyškov creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Vyškov
1.60
Táborsko
1.15

allows per match

Vyškov
1.03
Táborsko
1.34

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Táborsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
72%
Vyškov or Táborsko
74%
Draw or Táborsko
54%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
23%
Táborsko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
77%
Vyškov 2+ goals
43%
Vyškov 3+ goals
18%
Táborsko 1+ goals
66%
Táborsko 2+ goals
30%
Táborsko 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
62%
Táborsko (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 1.60 + Táborsko defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Táborsko attack 1.15 + Vyškov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vyškov scores more
46%
level
26%
Táborsko scores more
28%

Vyškov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vyškov 2–2 Táborsko

Vyškov and Táborsko drew 2-2 in FNL on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Sportovní areál Drnovice in Drnovice.