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Vyškov vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vyškov
Vyškov
CANC
09:15
Hlučín
Hlučín
2/20/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17UT Vyškov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vyškov48%
×Draw23%
Hlučín30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vyškov
1.85
Hlučín
1.42

Vyškov creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vyškov
2.33
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Vyškov
1.17
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Vyškov+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vyškov ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vyškov or draw
70%
Vyškov or Hlučín
77%
Draw or Hlučín
52%

Winning margin

Vyškov wins by 2+
26%
Hlučín wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vyškov 1+ goals
84%
Vyškov 2+ goals
55%
Vyškov 3+ goals
28%
Hlučín 1+ goals
76%
Hlučín 2+ goals
41%
Hlučín 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vyškov (draw refunded)
62%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vyškov at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vyškov attack 2.33 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Vyškov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vyškov scores more
48%
level
23%
Hlučín scores more
30%

Vyškov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vyškov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vyškov vs Hlučín — Match Preview

Vyškov face Hlučín on February 20, 2021 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vyškov host Hlučín at UT Vyškov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.