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VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
3/31/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 31Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

VVV Venlo36%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.47
NAC Breda
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
61%
VVV Venlo or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
64%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
17%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
77%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
43%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
18%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
79%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
45%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
48%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.47

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
36%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
39%

NAC Breda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: VVV Venlo 1–3 NAC Breda

NAC Breda beat VVV Venlo 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.