VVV Venlo 3–0 Lommel United: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

3 – 0

Lommel United

1/7/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Soeverein Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VVV Venlo55%

×Draw20%

Lommel United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchLommel United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.53

VVV Venlo

2.31

Lommel United

1.53

VVV Venlo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

1.40

1.67

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.33

Lommel United

1.40

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.67

Lommel United

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Lommel United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Lommel United →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

75%

VVV Venlo or Lommel United

80%

Draw or Lommel United

45%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

34%

Lommel United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

90%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

67%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

40%

Lommel United 1+ goals

78%

Lommel United 2+ goals

45%

Lommel United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

68%

Lommel United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Lommel United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.33 + Lommel United defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lommel United attack 1.40 + VVV Venlo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

55%

level

20%

Lommel United scores more

25%

VVV Venlo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff