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VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
9/13/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo50%
×Draw23%
Jong Utrecht27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVV Venlo
1.79
Jong Utrecht
1.27

VVV Venlo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 147 away

creates per match

VVV Venlo
1.41
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

VVV Venlo
1.46
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw
73%
VVV Venlo or Jong Utrecht
77%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
50%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+
27%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals
83%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
53%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
26%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
72%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
36%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
65%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

VVV Venlo scores more
50%
level
23%
Jong Utrecht scores more
27%

VVV Venlo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht

VVV Venlo beat Jong Utrecht 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Venlo.