VVV Venlo 2–1 Helmond Sport: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Helmond Sport

9/13/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 5Covebo Stadion - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo49%

×Draw24%

Helmond Sport27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchHelmond Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.18

VVV Venlo

1.68

Helmond Sport

1.18

VVV Venlo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 147 away

1.41

creates per match

0.90

1.46

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.41

Helmond Sport

0.90

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.46

Helmond Sport

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Helmond Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

73%

VVV Venlo or Helmond Sport

76%

Draw or Helmond Sport

51%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

26%

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

81%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

50%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

24%

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

69%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

33%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

65%

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.95 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Helmond Sport defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.68

Helmond Sport attack 0.90 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

49%

level

24%

Helmond Sport scores more

27%

VVV Venlo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff