VVV Venlo 0–1 FC Viktoria Koln: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Viktoria Koln

P. Koronkiewicz 14' (pen)

7/15/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Ter Horst veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

VVV Venlo40%

×Draw22%

FC Viktoria Koln38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchFC Viktoria Koln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.75

VVV Venlo

1.80

FC Viktoria Koln

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.00

FC Viktoria Koln

2.00

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.50

FC Viktoria Koln

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

FC Viktoria Koln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

FC Viktoria Koln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

62%

VVV Venlo or FC Viktoria Koln

78%

Draw or FC Viktoria Koln

60%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

21%

FC Viktoria Koln wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

83%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

54%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

27%

FC Viktoria Koln 1+ goals

83%

FC Viktoria Koln 2+ goals

52%

FC Viktoria Koln 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

51%

FC Viktoria Koln (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

FC Viktoria Koln away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.00 + FC Viktoria Koln defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

FC Viktoria Koln attack 2.00 + VVV Venlo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

40%

level

22%

FC Viktoria Koln scores more

38%

VVV Venlo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. KoronkiewiczPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff